La Niña is officially over, but the Bureau of Meteorology says it could be back in the spring

La Niña Is Officially Over, But The Bureau Of Meteorology Says It Could Be Back In The Spring

La Niña, the weather pattern that hit Australia with record rainfall and flooding for several months, is finally over, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

However, some models suggest that La Niña may form again in the southern hemisphere during spring for the third time in a row.

“As a result, the agency’s ENSO outlook status has changed to the La Niña watch,” BOM said today in its climate driver update.

“The La Niña clock means there is about a 50% chance that La Niña will form in late 2022.

BOM’s head of long-distance forecasting Andrew Watkins said a La Niña watch did not change the outlook for above-average rainfall for large parts of the country in the coming months.

“The agency’s long-term outlook remains wetter than average, in line with model outlooks from other global forecasting centers, reflecting various climate factors, including a developing negative dipole in the Indian Ocean (IOD) and warmer waters. than the average around Australia.” said Watkins.

“Sea surface temperatures are currently warmer than average over large parts of the Australian coast, especially to the north and west.

A Dial Indicating The La Nina Watch By Bom.
2021-2022 La Niña is over, but a La Niña watch is in effect.(Provided: Department of Meteorology)

‘Already saturated’

A triple La Niña has only happened three times before – in 1954-57, 1973-76 and 1998-2001 – according to ARC Center of Excellence for Climate Extremes climatologist Zoe Gillett.

“A third consecutive La Niña and could increase the chances of rain for an already saturated east coast,” she said.

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